Monday, March 10, 2008

Rejection Protection

REJECTION PROTECTION?
Watching "American Idol" has become a sort of national pastime among those who either enjoy it wholeheartedly or as a guilty pleasure. Most will tell you that they watch as much to see contestants get rejected as they do to see the rise of The Next Big Thing. When a horrible audition and rejection are followed by outrageous displays of agony or even anger, it illustrates a disturbing trend of entitlement that's developing in our society.
What happened to the days when there were winners and losers? We've reached a dangerous point where our children are competing in sports where everyone gets a trophy, or they don't even keep score. Birthday parties can't be mentioned in class unless every student will be invited. Does this protect the development of character, or completely undermine it?
Self-esteem is just that - it's about you and how you handle acceptance and rejection. It cannot be given by others, and it cannot be developed without experiences that run the spectrum from success to failure. Competition provides a critical arena for such experience, but only when it is acknowledged that some will do better or worse than others, and that such an outcome is acceptable.
An unhealthy sense of entitlement emerges when we never have to lose and thus face our failures. Some of those "American Idol" contestants, who honestly have no talent, are completely crushed by the rejection that follows their 30-second audition. These young people are completely unprepared to hear the truth, completely unprepared to walk out of the room without their "golden ticket." It's pitiable that they've been raised to believe they can have whatever they want, without having put in the hard work to achieve that success.
One bedrock of our society has been that anyone can achieve their dream, and it's true. But success is determined by understanding the difference between dreams and reality, and by the strength we gain from working through our failures on the road to our goals. Our ability to succeed walks hand-in-hand with - and cannot move forward without - our ability to handle rejection and failure. Walk on!

Sunday, September 9, 2007

Predictions for the Real Estate Market in 2008

In my opinion the housing market will continue to slowly drop until the foreclosure crisis is over, this will happen, when the Banks finally DO something to get out of this vicious cycle once and for all.
Just like in 1996. Right now, they are just being difficult in processing short sales and doing what would help move the inventory faster and cut losses to the minimum for everybody; of course this requires for them to recognize and take a huge loss, so they are just waiting to see if some kind of miracle will materialize in the near future, which probably won't.
In the meantime, short sales are not being cleared with enough speed, prices keep dropping because of the lack of activity in the market and this all starts to turn into a vicious cycle that ends with properties being foreclosed at a scary rate.
Sooner or later the Banking industry will need to take all their foreclosed properties, start packaging them and sell them at $0.50 on the dollar, take the hit (which is likely to somehow be transferred to our ever increasing deficit, inflation will increase, the dollar will loose value, this, by the way will make our products and our nation more competitive in the global market) then, with the market free of this excessive inventory creating a negative preasure on the prices. A healthy price level (probably 5 to 10% lower than what it is now, mid 2007), and with no more foreclosed properties casting a "ridiculous price" shadow on the rest of the market, the sky will be clear, the prices will stop dropping, the real estate market...slowly but surely will go back to being the great solid investment that it has always been.
It will probably take 3 or 4 years to begin appreciating again, but it is certain it will. Just as inflation is real, and population growth is real, and obsolete buildings are real, and human need for housing is real.

Remember, this is a 10 year cycle, with 5 year memories.

Right now, as it was expected, you are seeing all the "chicken littles" coming out of their shells crying "wolf" and trying to convince us that the world is going to end. The scarier their prediction the more important they feel.

Remember that human kind re-invents itself all the time, our nature and our instincts are to improve the life of our children one notch above what we lived, this very human disposition, multiplied times billions of parents creates one true "joint effort" to improve the world, and that has happened since the beginning of time and will continue to happen for ever.

The falling of prices and slowdowns in the economy happen every few years, and pretty soon all these "crows" will go back to their caves, and we will see the market flourish again.
Cycles have always been a natural behavior of real estate as well as any market and any activity where humans are involved, and cycles will continue to happen.

Don't worry world!.... life is great, and the sun WILL come out tomorrow!

Tuesday, July 3, 2007

Always think positive....and be thankfull

I have noticed that there is a feeling of distress going around. The economy is a little bit slow, businesses are suffering, sales are down, etc...
I suggest you always look into all the positive things that a particular situation brings, there is always opportunity, there is always something good that can flourish in what would seem to be the worst condition.
When bad things are happening to you, take a moment to look at all the good things that are also part of your life, I bet you will find they are many and far more important than any bad bumps you are going through.
Always think of the positive, always be consistent in doing your best in the end you will come out on top, thank God everyday for all the good things that have happened to you in this life, and you will start noticing how more good things start happening to you.

Saturday, April 21, 2007

HEY EVERYBODY!!! THE TIME IS NOW!

Many people think that this is not a good time to invest in Real Estate, because the market is "unstable", because it might drop "a little bit more".For all this people, just think about the following:
The market in San Diego county has dropped 15 to 20% in the last year and a half, this is a larger drop than the one we went through in the 1980's and 1990's, none of those was larger than 14%.
Sellers are VERY motivated to sell, hence you can get an even bigger price cut.
If you are waiting for someone to come on the nightly news and inform that prices will officially start moving up again, it is not going to happen.
Interest rates are very attractive.
Economy is strong.
It is precisely this "instability" in the market, the one that creates uncertainty and fear in the mind of the sellers, and that is what works to the benefit of the buyer. The moment the market "stabilizes" it will also "stabilize" for the sellers. Then, at that point they will stop accepting low ball offers and the buyer's market will be officially OVER.

What is happening to the Real Estate market?

We have to understand that the Real Estate market, just like the Stock market and like most human behaviors, works in cycles, has trends, pulses. This cyclical changes happen because there are humans involved.Through the years, we have learned to measure those cycles, to understand the basic reasoning behind them and in short, this is what generates them (in Real Estate):
Having a home is human nature, an instinct, a need to nest, to protect our family. As population grows, there will always be a need for an equal increase in housing.
There are areas that are more attractive than others, or located in areas that have better climatic conditions, better natural settings, etc... these areas will always appreciate at a faster rate than others that are not that priviledged.
As population grows, an insuficient supply of houses creates an unbalance between supply and demand, creating what we know as an Expansion Market, a seller controlled environment, everybody wants a house, the seller controls the transaction.
This excessive demand with limited supply encourages developers to build massive quantities of homes, prices to soar, sellers to feed their greed. At some point, the supply starts leveling with the demand, at the same time houses become unaffordable... we reach the phase called: Saturation.
Right after this, the perception of value by the consumer suddenly changes, buyers begin to realize that even if they can afford to buy, there is not much expectation of prices going even higher, so they might be facing a financial loss. They stop seeing value in owning a home.
Builders begin to fear that their inventories will not find a buyer, so they stop building at once.
Media starts yelling Wolf!, all the "chicken littles" appear on the news, everybody predicts the end of the "bubble".
The market slows down, houses stop selling, and then it begins: The home owners that realize they pay more than they could really afford, the buyers that took on aggressive financing as the only means to fulfill their desire to own a home, begin to feel the crunch, the dream is over and now they realize that they are paying far more than what they can. They are on a financial crash course, so they decide they need to sell their home.
At this point the new seller realizes that the home will not sell so easily, because there are no buyers out there, (there are always buyers, just not that many). The seller panics and becomes aware that the only way to sell their home is to lower the price of the home, prices drop, and drop further, exsacerbating the situation, creating a snowball effect. This is the absortion phase.
This phase will continue until the following happens: + Inflation keeps eroding the buying power, prices go up in everything except for houses. + Population keeps on growing, the need for housing is intrinsic, even if people don't want to buy a house, they need a house, and sooner or later they will have to buy one. + Rents skyrocket, because people have not been buying homes, rents become scarce and landlords take advantage of this. + Investing in income property starts making financial sense again. + The perception of the price of homes suddenly changes, now houses look cheap...
You guessed right......... a new Expansion phase has begun.

Thursday, March 1, 2007

What is happening to the Real Estate market?

We have to understand that the Real Estate market, just like the Stock market and like most human behaviors, works in cycles, has trends, pulses. This cyclical changes happen because there are humans involved.
Through the years, we have learned to measure those cycles, to understand the basic reasoning behind them and in short, this is what generates them (in Real Estate):

  1. Having a home is human nature, an instinct, a need to nest, to protect our family. As population grows, there will always be a need for an equal increase in housing.
  2. There are areas that are more attractive than others, or located in areas that have better climatic conditions, better natural settings, etc... these areas will always appreciate at a faster rate than others that are not that priviledged.
  3. As population grows, an insuficient supply of houses creates an unbalance between supply and demand, creating what we know as an Expansion Market, a seller controlled environment, everybody wants a house, the seller controls the transaction.
  4. This excessive demand with limited supply encourages developers to build massive quantities of homes, prices to soar, sellers to feed their greed. At some point, the supply starts leveling with the demand, at the same time houses become unaffordable... we reach the phase called: Saturation.
  5. Right after this, the perception of value by the consumer suddenly changes, buyers begin to realize that even if they can afford to buy, there is not much expectation of prices going even higher, so they might be facing a financial loss. They stop seeing value in owning a home.
  6. Builders begin to fear that their inventories will not find a buyer, so they stop building at once.
  7. Media starts yelling Wolf!, all the "chicken littles" appear on the news, everybody predicts the end of the "bubble".
  8. The market slows down, houses stop selling, and then it begins: The home owners that realize they pay more than they could really afford, the buyers that took on aggressive financing as the only means to fulfill their desire to own a home, begin to feel the crunch, the dream is over and now they realize that they are paying far more than what they can. They are on a financial crash course, so they decide they need to sell their home.
  9. At this point the new seller realizes that the home will not sell so easily, because there are no buyers out there, (there are always buyers, just not that many). The seller panics and becomes aware that the only way to sell their home is to lower the price of the home, prices drop, and drop further, exsacerbating the situation, creating a snowball effect. This is the absortion phase.
  10. This phase will continue until the following happens: + Inflation keeps eroding the buying power, prices go up in everything except for houses. + Population keeps on growing, the need for housing is intrinsic, even if people don't want to buy a house, they need a house, and sooner or later they will have to buy one. + Rents skyrocket, because people have not been buying homes, rents become scarce and landlords take advantage of this. + Investing in income property starts making financial sense again. + The perception of the price of homes suddenly changes, now houses look cheap...
  11. You guessed right, a new Expansion phase has begun.

Real Estate is a 10 year cycle with 5 year memories.

Always remember that this cycle doesn't change. Also remember that investing in a buyer's market is what you need to do if you want to buy smart, after all: you make money when you buy, not when you sell.

Tuesday, February 20, 2007

Consistency will make you wealthy


I am a Realtor in San Diego, California. I am also an investor, so far I own several rental properties in different states.I am not rich, but I am definitely going to retire wealthy. And this will happen in 16 years to be exact.Retiring wealthy, in my book, means that I will have enough income coming from my investments, to fulfill my projected expenses when I reach my retirement age. I probably will not stop working, because I also believe that if you truly retire, you rust and die younger. But what I want is make working an option, not a necessity.Through this blog, I intend to help people follow this plan, even if you don't have any money. Even if you have not started saving and you are not young anymore. (I am already 49!)If you are young, then you will appreciate the fact that if you follow my advice, not only will you retire wealthy, you will be filthy rich, and before you retire.I welcome you to visit my website http://www.houseinsandiego.com/.

Wednesday, December 20, 2006

Sandicor Tempo is so outdated, realtors deserve better

I am a Real Estate agent in the San Diego area, I use Tempo everyday.
I am amazed that this piece of crap (excuse my outrage), is the best we Realtors can have.
This software is so outdated, so inefficient and plagued with bugs, you would think it was designed by a teenager in between TV shows.
I have complained, offended people, suggested improvements, emailed them with suggestions, you name it...... it is still a piece of $%^& the only thing they have done so far is to apply old fashioned looking icons (they look ridiculously old). They don't get it, the problem is not superficial the problem is structural:

  • The MLS listing report is difficult to read
  • Lacks a lot of important information
  • The format is so....60s, looks like somebody typed it in an IBM
  • Custom searches are plagued with bugs
  • Client gateway does not always work, and you never learn until your client (or would have been client) tells you.